Bill Kramer

During a visit to Stonehenge in 2001 the tour
guide said
that
The fact that many of the large stones line up to
mark the
solstice and equinox as well as other astronomical timings related to
the
seasons is well known. However, this
knowledge alone cannot help in eclipse prediction unless it is done to
a much
higher degree of precision than can be accomplished with large rocks
and wooden
posts. And the degree of sophistication
needed to conduct a long term experiment into the repeating cycles of
the Sun,
Moon, and Earth would have resulted in more than just a ring a well
placed
stones. Archeological studies have found
evidence of holes that once held wood posts that mark the positions of
the moonrise
relative to other stones. This leads one
to wonder just how much the ancients who built
Several clever explanations for the stone
configurations
related to solar system objects have been proposed along with the sun
and moon
tracking. Other stone circles from the
same archeological time period do not have the same configurations thus
making
So where did this story that
What were the original purposes of the pits? They do not have the same characteristics as pits dug to hold posts nor those dug to support the stones. Perhaps they were instrumental during the construction or they were built for other symbolic purposes. Without any form of written records it is guesswork.
ASet Up
The elements required are simple.
56 holes
4 markers

Start Up
On the day of the summer solstice, place the Sun marker in hole #56.
On the evening of a full moon, place the Moon marker in hole #56.
Begin advancing the Sun and Moon marker every day.
The Node markers are added with the observation of a lunar or solar eclipse. Place one of the Node markers in the same hole as the Sun marker. The other Node marker should be placed in the hole exactly opposite.You can now begin the regular ritual of advancing the markers.
(Note, the solar eclipse of June 21st, 2001 was a
unique
opportunity to set up a
Predicting an Eclipse
Once the markers have been placed you can use the model to predict the next eclipse. The markers are moved from one hole to the next according to the following schedule.
Moon marker - move twice a day, once in the morning and again in the evening.
Sun marker - move every six and one half days. Alternate mornings and evenings.
Node markers - move every four months (moved in opposite direction)
The Moon and Sun markers are moved in the plus direction (hole 1 to 2, 2 to 3, and so on) while the nodes are moved in the minus direction (hole 3 to 2, 2 to 1, 1 to 56, and so on).
When the Node markers are one away from both the Sun and Moon markers, then an eclipse will occur. If the Sun is near one node and the Moon near the opposite, it will be a lunar eclipse. If both the Sun and Moon are near the same marker then there is a chance of a solar eclipse. Whether the eclipse is visible for your location requires a much more precise calculation. This calculation will only tell us the likelihood of an eclipse event occurring.The Moon and Sun markers can be "corrected" at standard alignment times. The Moon during the Full Moon each month and the Sun during the Solstice. The nodes would be recalibrated each time an actual eclipse was observed.
If the model is maintained in real time then you will be able to tell that an eclipse is coming a few days before as the Moon's marker advances into position. The model might be used in a simulation be accelerating the clock. Using a computer program based on this simple model the dates of upcoming eclipse events were predicted five years in advance.The method is not 100% accurate but it is close and can be refined even further. We can refine the model by understanding more about why it works.
Refining the method
The orbits of the Sun, Earth, and Moon are cyclical. When counting days the cycles do not divide into nice neat integer numbers. But that does not mean integer numbers (also known as whole numbers) cannot be used. The key to using integer numbers is to use a common multiplier result. It just so happens that the number 56 works pretty well.
The Sun: Multiply 6.5 by 56 and the answer is 364. This is just 1.25 days short of a proper year. Thus moving the Sun marker every six and one half days is "pretty close". Every six months the Sun marker can be corrected during a Solstice (Northern most or Southern most travel of the Sun during a year). The maximum error would be just over half a day with regularly applied corrections. When doing a simulation of the calculator sequence you must take into account the extra day and add yet another every four years just like a leap year.
The Moon: Divide 56 by 2 and you have 28, just about the number of days required for the Moon to orbit the Earth and return to the same position relative to the background stars. The actual value is 27.322 days thus requiring regular corrections to be applied based on actual observations. To apply the corrections in a simulation of the calculator for future eclipse prediction skip one hole each orbit about the circle. This would allow the Moon marker to complete a circuit in 27.5 days. If another hole is skipped every third circuit then the average cycle over three lunar orbits is 27.33 days. The result of (27.5+27.5+27)/3 is 27.333 and that will keep the simulated future position of the Moon very close to reality.
The Nodes: The nodes movement, three
times a
year, means than 18.66 years are needed for a complete circuit. The actual orbit of the nodes is 18.61
years. Every 18 years, the node values
will be off by about one month. Thus four
cycles (4 x 18 years) are needed before the nodes are off by one
position in
the circle. Corrections applied by
direct observation will allow the
Refined Method Description:
Using the refined method a simulation was able correctly predict eclipse event dates up to ten years before and after a known eclipse date.
Such knowledge may have been useful to the
builders of

Written works -
Web Sites -
www.stonehengepostcards.com - collection of visual images over past century and more